Modeling Earthen Dike Stability: Sensitivity Analysis and Automatic Calibration of Diffusivities Based on Live Sensor Data

The paper describes concept and implementation details of integrating a finite element module for dike stability analysis “Virtual Dike” into an early warning system for flood protection. The module operates in real-time mode and includes fluid and structural submodels for simulation of porous flow through the dike and for dike stability analysis. Realtime measurements obtained from pore pressure sensors are fed into the simulation module, to be compared with simulated pore pressure dynamics. Implementation of the module has been performed for a real-world test case – an earthen levee protecting a sea-port in Groningen, the Netherlands. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of diffusivities have been performed for tidal fluctuations. An algorithm for automatic diffusivities calibration for a heterogeneous dike is proposed and studied. Analytical solutions describing tidal propagation in one-dimensional saturated aquifer are employed in the algorithm to generate initial estimates of diffusivities.